After only slight declines in 2020, the market for exterior doors in the five largest markets in Western Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Great Britain) is already set to exceed the pre-crisis level this year.
For this year, a growth in volume of 5.4% is expected. Slowly but steadily, however, the market will lose momentum in the coming years. Therefore, the average annual growth for the years 2020 to 2024 is 4.0%, as shown in a study by Interconnection Consulting.
There are two areas in particular that are causing the positive sentiment in the market. On the one hand, the residential construction segment, where sales of exterior doors are expected to increase by 6.9% in 2021, and on the other hand, the renovation segment, which will clearly outperform the new construction segment (+3.6%) in terms of dynamics with a forecast increase of 6.5%. The residential segment is the most important sales market for exterior doors with 79% and the renovation sector is far ahead of the new construction segment with a market share of 62%. On the other hand, the non-residential market segment is finding it harder to get back on track after the crisis in all regions surveyed. Due to price increases, turnover in the five countries will rise by 10.9% in 2021, much more than sales.
Growth in the Markets Divided
The individual markets and their developments were quite similar, but also show some differences due to different conditions in the countries. In Italy, sales of exterior doors fell by 7.8% last year. This year, however, the market rose again rapidly (+4.6%). This was not least due to the introduction of the Superbonus 110 by the government, which reimbursed households 110% of their renovation investment up to a certain limit. In France, the market shrank by 7.7% in 2020 but will grow again by 6.5% this year. As in all the examined markets, the residential renovation segment will be the biggest driver of the French market, with an increase of 7.7%.
In new construction, primarily detached and semi-detached houses are generating strong demand. In Germany, the exterior doors market also went uphill in 2020. This increase will continue at an accelerated pace in residential construction in 2021 (+4.9%). The residential construction sector in particular is proving very resilient to the crisis. Favourable housing loans and the stabilisation of household incomes by the government are having a positive effect on the demand for exterior doors in the housing market. The renovation segment in the residential construction segment is also proving to be very robust. On the other hand, the non-residential construction sector in Germany will see a minus this year (-3.5%).
Laszlo Barla, the author of the study, explains the reasons for the decline in non-residential construction: Decreasing investments in commercial and industrial construction are decisive.
2020 was also a challenging year for the UK. The market plunged by almost 10% in 2020. However, a strong rebound effect is expected for this year and the next. Growth will be 7.0% this year and 5.4% in 2022. In the UK, too, it is the housing sector that is driving growth through high approvals in mortgage lending. But business investment is also picking up as uncertainties over trade relations with the EU slowly dissipate. In Spain, the market is even more divided than in most other countries. While the residential construction segment grew by 4.2% in 2020, the non-residential sector declined by 2.9%. The divergence will continue this year with a growth of 7.3% on one side and a decline of -3.2% on the non-residential side.
Trend Towards Aluminium
In terms of materials, aluminium has a narrow lead with a market share of 32.1%, closely followed by PVC with 30.8%. However, this close result only shows a snapshot.
PVC has only benefited from the increased renovation in the short term. In the longer term, PVC’s shares are actually slightly declining – says Laszlo Barla.
An exception in the market is Italy, where wooden doors are the most popular material, with a market share of 26.5%. However, we can see that this market share is steadily decreasing. The number one material in France and Germany is aluminium with a market share of 33 and 35% respectively. In the UK, PVC dominates with more than 40% of the market share. This share will remain stable over the next few years. However, aluminium will grow a little more than PVC, from 25% today to 26% market share. In Spain, aluminium is almost alone in the pack. The market share of the dominant front door material is 71%, followed by wood and PVC.
